What does North Korea's Kim want from rare China trip? / Photo: STR - KCNA VIA KNS/AFP
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What does North Korea's Kim want from rare China trip?
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is set to visit China this week, a rare step beyond his country's borders, for prospective meetings with President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
The trip could be Kim's bid to "formalise" his budding ties with Pyongyang's two main allies -- and potentially play a more prominent role on the international stage, experts say.
AFP takes a look at what we know about the visit:
- What's going on? -
Beijing is hosting a grand military parade this week to mark the 80th anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War II.
Kim and Putin are among 26 heads of state slated to attend, marking the first time the two men have appeared alongside Xi at the same event.
Their presence "formalises the China-Russia-North Korea trilateral (relationship) to the public", Soo Kim, a geopolitical risk consultant and former CIA analyst, told AFP.
"What better way to send a visual message to the rest of the world, notably the US, Japan, and South Korea, that this is indeed the trilateral they are up against?" she said.
- What might it mean? -
Nuclear-armed North Korea and Russia are traditional allies that have grown closer since Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with Kim sending weapons and thousands of troops to help Moscow.
"This not only earned Kim a sweet spot with Putin -- effectively, it also helped him strengthen his global positioning," Soo Kim said.
By deepening military cooperation with Russia, the North Korean leader was able to "emerge" from global isolation following years of heavy UN-led sanctions over his banned weapons programmes, she said.
China is Pyongyang's other major backer, and has also never denounced the Ukraine war -- drawing criticism from Western nations that it is tacitly supporting Russia.
With his visit, Kim is making "a fresh push to improve Pyongyang's ties with Beijing following its outreach to Moscow", Yang Moo-jin, former president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, told AFP.
"With Putin also in attendance, the event showcases a North Korea-China-Russia socialist alignment, with Pyongyang seeking to position itself as a key player in the trilateral framework," Yang said.
- What does it mean for Kim? -
Kim enjoyed a brief bout of high-profile international diplomacy from around 2018, meeting US President Donald Trump and then South Korean President Moon Jae-in multiple times.
But he withdrew from the global scene after the collapse of a summit with Trump in Hanoi, Vietnam, in 2019.
Kim stayed in North Korea throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, but met Putin in Russia's far east in 2023.
Although Kim's grandfather, North Korea's founding leader Kim Il Sung, actively pursued global diplomacy, his father and predecessor Kim Jong Il was significantly more reclusive, said Cheong Seong-chang at Seoul's Sejong Institute.
Kim Jong Un's trip to Beijing could signal that, "like his grandfather... he will now become more active in foreign diplomacy", Cheong said.
It could also be pragmatic move, as for aid-dependent Pyongyang "Chinese support is essential", he added.
Xi is also set to visit South Korea later this year for a major summit, and Kim's trip could signal an effort to hedge against the Chinese leader improving ties with Seoul's new president, Lee Jae Myung.
- What about Trump? -
The Chinese parade comes as Trump steps up efforts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Trump -- who met Kim three times and once even said they had fallen "in love" -- has voiced hope of meeting him again.
Since their failed 2019 summit, Pyongyang has declared itself an "irreversible" nuclear state and recently rejected any suggestion of improving ties with Seoul's Lee.
Putin may "serve as a useful go-between (for) Kim and Trump", Vladimir Tikhonov, Korean Studies professor at the University of Oslo, told AFP.
"It is a sad irony. Putin has been indicted for war-related crimes, but he is also perhaps the only contemporary power holder whom both Trump and Kim trust," he said.
- What will come afterwards? -
If Kim's Beijing trip is a success, it could help him score future diplomatic wins, Lim Eul-chul, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at South Korea's Kyungnam University, said.
It opens up the possibility of a "reciprocal visit" by Xi to Pyongyang for a key anniversary in October, which Kim will be eager to use for domestic political wins, Lim told AFP.
"If Kim succeeds in securing Xi's visit, it would raise the regime's status to its highest level," he said.
L.Bernasconi--GdR
